A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
